Market Bulletin: Outlook for the London Marine Insurance Market in 2026
The London Hull and War Market is experiencing continued softening as new capacity enters the market. This, coupled with a proliferation of broker facilities designed to boost broker earnings, has had limited tangible benefits for clients. The absence of significant "market losses," particularly from a war perspective, has driven this trend. Additionally, carriers are accepting larger shares of risk, which reduces risk distribution. However, the geopolitical landscape suggests that large war portfolios could face challenges, prompting a shift towards more balanced and diversified underwriting strategies.
Conversely, the Hull and Machinery market is moving in the opposite direction. The rising costs and management of attritional losses have reached a tipping point, where retention levels are becoming a critical focus. Claims inflation is further exacerbating this issue, underscoring the need for carriers to reassess their approaches.
These opposing dynamics are gradually slowing the anticipated "soft market" cycle, which many had projected for 2025. While rate reductions are evident, they are occurring selectively and often require extensive negotiation. The ongoing pressure to grow income for both carriers and brokers is impacting profitability across carriers' books, creating a challenging backdrop for sustainable growth.
Looking ahead to 2026, the market forecast appears less certain than it did in early 2025. The influx of capacity and the drive for income growth, which previously dominated pricing discussions, are likely to give way to a renewed focus on profitability. Risk selection, data-driven underwriting, and more detailed engagement are expected to shape market dynamics as the industry aims for a more sustainable approach.
Marine Liability Market Trends
The Marine Liability market is softening but has followed a more gentle trajectory throughout 2025, a trend that is expected to continue into 2026. Unlike physical damage classes such as hull, war, and cargo, liability markets tend to experience slower rate adjustments due to the protracted nature of claim settlements. However, carriers are responding to competition by offering broader coverage and displaying increased appetite for complex and challenging product classes, ultimately providing clients with enhanced value.
Certain segments, such as Ports and Terminals, have seen more pronounced rate reductions driven by the emergence of new syndicate and coverholder capacity. This influx of competition has introduced greater variability within specific product classes.
Liability Claims and Market Challenges
Claims activity in 2025 has been relatively benign, with minimal new loss activity and limited deterioration of existing large claims. Despite this, claims inflation remains a pressing concern for insurers. The frequency and severity of natural catastrophe claims, including wildfires, floods, and earthquakes, continue to rise. These events not only impact shoreside infrastructure but also create ripple effects throughout the shipping industry and associated marine businesses.
As the market moves into 2026, while the softening market will persist, its progression will vary across product, with carriers leveraging data analytics to refine underwriting practices. This evolving landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders, emphasising the need for strategic engagement and innovative solutions led by strong broking partnerships.
The London Fine Art and Specie market is currently experiencing moderate renewal rate reductions, driven by increased market capacity. This expansion is attributed to a wave of underwriter transitions, the establishment of new Fine Art and Specie (FAS) teams within existing syndicates, and the emergence of new Managing General Agents (MGAs). Collectively, these developments have introduced additional capacity, applying downward pressure on rates across the board. Lloyd’s of London continues to lead as the preferred market for distressed, challenging, catastrophe-exposed, and capacity-driven risks.
London remains a preferred choice for many European partners, particularly when it comes to securing coverage in high-risk locations or arranging placements with high liability limits. While the domestic European market continues to perform strongly in the Accident & Health sector, London offers valuable support in areas that fall outside the typical domestic appetite.
Miller’s Accident & Health team brings extensive experience in managing complex placements and delivering tailored solutions, including coverage in conflict zones and security-focused policies. A notable example is their ability to support organisations deploying staff to high-risk regions such as Ukraine and Israel (including the West Bank and Gaza), by offering short-term or annual specialist policies that enable clients to operate with enhanced security and peace of mind.
We are seeing plenty of new capacity enter the market coming into H2 and beyond, with new MGA’s writing a broader range of political violence and terror coverage. This is leading to greater competition amongst carriers to win and retain new business in a relatively soft market. The London Market continues to provide the broadest range of coverage and some of the most competitive pricing available.
Given the current climate, we have seen an increase in demand for Active Assailant / Shooter coverage with European clients starting to better understand the value and purpose of this coverage. Miller’s PV&T team are well-positioned to guide clients through the latest trends and provide clarity and reassurance in this complex area.
The renewable energy market is softening for Cat free risks (which many territories in Europe classify as) and those with a good loss history. This includes BESS as well as onshore wind and solar as more capacity and appetite from a wider range of markets, including several new MGAs and Power and Energy markets entering the sector also. As a result, we would expect to get discounts on renewals based on good loss records due to alternative market capacity being available.
Several new MGAs are presenting themselves in London and Europe, with some acquisitions providing more capacity. This increased capacity will create more competition, however in the short-term lead markets have expanded significant meaning the impact on rates is still limited.
The London Market offers numerous advantages, chief among them being its depth of experience. Many of the world’s leading sporting organisations, teams, and individuals place their trust in the ability of London insurers to manage large-scale and complex risks. This underwriting expertise, accessible via a Lloyd’s broker, provides clients with peace of mind, knowing their bases are fully covered.
Miller has facilities in place (either via lineslip or binder) covering a wide range of risks, from Contingency and Personal Accident to Liability and more. This enables us to secure preferential rates from insurers while delivering the robust coverage our clients and partners require. Our experience working with some of the world’s largest sporting organisations also helps clients and partners navigate the evolving compliance landscape.
The London Market remains well-positioned to adapt to the ever-evolving world of sport, providing innovative solutions to the issues that most effect its stakeholders today. Miller’s strong track record within the market is a testament to this.
We are noticing growing interest from our European partners who, despite identifying opportunities or niche sectors, often lack the local products to meet their needs. In these cases, the London Market has stepped in to fill this gap effectively. Additionally, there has been an increase in demand from Europe for cyber insurance. While clients still require support in understanding the value and purpose of cyber cover, as well as in quantifying the associated risks, our team is well-positioned to guide them through the latest trends and provide clarity on this complex area.
Buyer friendly conditions persist, extending a long run of quarterly decreases as competition and capacity have increased, including primary capacity with broad terms available for clients. We have seen exposure rising as Ransomware becomes the costliest claim type.
The European reinsurance market at mid-year is showing signs of easing, though discipline remains intact. The shift has tilted further toward buyers, driven by favourable loss experience and abundance of capital, which continue to reinforce competition and keep retro markets liquid.
European reinsurers remain profitable with robust balance sheets, which underpins willingness to deploy limit. This profitability—combined with competitive pressure—has led to favourable renewals on clean programs, though loss-impacted or flood-exposed Property portfolios still face scrutiny and tighter structuring. Buyers are also increasingly exploring aggregate and blended covers as a way to address volatility.
Although the cycle is softer than in recent years, challenges remain. Demand for reinsurance and retrocession continues to grow steadily, with capacity largely available and competition ensuring that price adjustments remain reasonable.
From a structural perspective, the market is focused on managing volatility through higher retentions, while also seeking capital efficiency gains. Although the softer cycle is creating opportunities for buyers, it presents challenges for reinsurers’ growth and adds volatility to earnings. The pressure of investment income volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty could influence margins, particularly if interest rates decline.
As we enter Q4 of 2025, several factors are worth monitoring. Europe’s autumn and winter flood and windstorm seasons have the potential to change the tone of the market if loss activity materialises. In addition, investment tailwinds may ease, and reinsurers may look to defend margins more aggressively at 1/1 renewals. On the positive side, reinsurers are still benefiting from retro market capacity, which supports their ability to write business and helps sustain demand.
The delegated authority market is experiencing a surge in interest, with underwriters and brokers increasingly seeking opportunities in this dynamic space. While many professionals bring the underwriting expertise and robust data needed to reassure markets about the strength of their portfolios, others require guidance to view their businesses with the objectivity necessary to secure approval for their propositions.
One of the key drivers behind this trend is the growing influence of local markets, which are often imposing terms that disadvantage local businesses. In response, many firms are turning to the London market and other international hubs in search of more favorable solutions.
London remains a cornerstone of flexibility and entrepreneurial spirit in the insurance sector. At Miller, we are committed to nurturing this environment, leveraging its dynamism to deliver innovative solutions and sustainable growth, not only for our clients but for the broader market beyond London.
Our strength lies in our international perspective. The Miller team combines deep expertise in insurance and reinsurance with a collaborative approach that ensures tailored solutions for complex challenges. With colleagues strategically located across Europe, Bermuda, and London, we are uniquely positioned to operate across borders and navigate the nuances of local and regional markets.
The recent acquisition of Alwen Hough Johnson (AHJ) has further enhanced our capabilities, expanding our offering and reinforcing our commitment to delivering exceptional value to clients worldwide.
The macro picture - Instability is a theme in geopolitics and global economic markets currently. Trade disputes, whether tactical positioning for a better negotiated outcome or a real weapon in a trade war to correct inequity, create volatility. The consequences of these macro issues leads to investment uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and interest rate changes that provide increased volatility to investors. Insurers are not immune from the cause & effect noted above. With commodity price and stock market volatility investors have sought a safe haven in the specialty insurance & reinsurance market that has over the past 5 years provided excellent returns for investors. However that influx of capital has delivered a marketplace that cannot possibly be satisfied with enough premium dollars and thus the fight for income to meet ambitious growth targets has become savage.
Upstream Energy view - due to the depressed activity of the low commodity price era and its resultant good loss record, Upstream Energy did not see the uptick in rates that other classes experienced. In most cases, year on year increases in the years up to 2023 were limited to low single digit rises. Since then, industry activity has picked up again, and the market has witnessed an increased level of attritional claims activity, as well as several larger claims. Contrary to expectations, the market’s response has been to grow through aggression and competition for quality operational business is now at a level not seen since the late 1990’s. Deductibles have remained static since the post World Trade Centre shock of 2001/2, which in real terms means a very significant fiscal drag, while the impact of inflation on claims has and surely will continue to rise. Offshore operational programmes can expect double-digit savings in premium regardless of record, with perceived quality risks being rewarded with greater discounts.
The Miller service model is designed to deliver impactful results by ensuring that all client interactions are managed with precision and care. Integrating the 'OneTeam' approach enhances our ability to offer tailored solutions, anticipate client’s needs, and consistently exceed expectations.
We are seeing new capacity entering the war risks market as we move into H2 and beyond. Several new MGAs are beginning to underwrite a broader spectrum of war-related exposures, contributing to increased competition among carriers seeking to secure and retain business in what remains a relatively soft market. The London Market continues to stand out by offering some of the most comprehensive war risks coverage and competitive pricing globally.
Considering ongoing geopolitical tensions and evolving conflict zones, demand for specialist war risks products—particularly those addressing state-sponsored hostilities and hybrid warfare—is on the rise. European clients are becoming more attuned to the strategic importance of war risks coverage in safeguarding assets and operations. Miller’s War Risks team is well-positioned to help clients navigate emerging trends, offering clarity and confidence in this increasingly complex and dynamic area of risk.
The London market continues to lead the way in innovation across the Financial Lines space. Our team at Miller has developed a suite of proprietary offerings designed specifically to meet the evolving needs of our European clients.
While local European insurers remain competitive, regularly benchmarking against the London market has proven essential in ensuring our clients consistently access the most progressive and cost-effective solutions available. London’s dynamic environment, driven by innovation and ambitious growth strategies, provides us access to opportunities that may not be available locally.
This proactive approach ensures our clients stay ahead of market trends, benefiting from both enhanced coverage options and strategic insight.
The London Liability market is currently experiencing a favourable shift, with increased capacity driven by a wave of new entrants and MGAs. Much of this growth is concentrated within Lloyd’s, allowing us to leverage existing licensing arrangements to better support our European clients.
Importantly, many London-based markets are actively seeking to diversify their portfolios beyond traditional territories such as Canada and Australia. Europe is now emerging as a strategic priority, presenting a timely opportunity for our clients to benefit from increased appetite and competitive terms.
Pricing across the market is stabilising, with downward movement in certain regions. Combined with a steady regulatory landscape and no significant compliance changes, London continues to offer a robust and reliable platform for growth. This environment positions us well to deliver enhanced solutions and value to our European partners.
The London cargo insurance market continues to experience softening conditions, with momentum building more rapidly than anticipated. This is reshaping the competitive landscape and influencing underwriting strategies across the sector.
We have seen a notable increase in capacity across the market with underwriters being appointed in most, if not all, newly launched syndicates and MGAs in recent months. This influx of underwriting resources is contributing to a more dynamic and flexible market environment.
Competition remains high, exerting strong downward pressure on pricing. Rate reductions are becoming increasingly common across a wide range of industry sectors, reflecting the market’s responsiveness to client demands and available capacity.
We are seeing a growing appetite among insurers for diversified, distressed, and complex risks. This shift signals a willingness to engage with more challenging exposures, offering broader opportunities for insureds seeking tailored solutions.
Collectively, these developments are creating a favourable environment for both insured and brokers. The combination of increased capacity, competitive pricing, and broader risk appetite is enhancing market accessibility and driving value across the board.
European brokers are seeing London emerge as a strong alternative to local markets, particularly as conditions soften across Property & Financial Lines. While casualty remains more controlled, broader coverage and competitive terms are increasingly available. With capacity now spread across MGAs, smaller syndicates, and major carriers, knowing which underwriters are actively engaged with European risks is essential – and Miller is well placed to guide that navigation.
The cyber attack on Marks & Spencer, with estimated losses of £300 million, has sharpened underwriter focus on operational resilience. London markets are recalibrating their approach, especially for retail and consumer facing clients. Brokers should expect tougher questions around vendor oversight and continuity planning, as headline events influence underwriting behaviour.
Rates have declined for four consecutive quarters, creating favourable conditions for European placements. However, underwriters are now prioritising quality risk presentation. Clients with strong ESG data, loss prevention measure, and financial transparency are best positioned to secure optimal terms.
Regulatory updates are also shaping underwriting conversations. The EU’s ESRS and the UK’s revised SRS are prompting more detailed ESG disclosures. Sanctions and financial crime remain key concerns, and brokers must demonstrate strong compliance to avoid delays.
London’s competitive landscape is evolving, with MGAs and newer syndicates offering more niche and innovative solutions. For European brokers, this presents both opportunity and complexity. Miller can navigate this broader capacity landscape to deliver greater value to our clients.
